This is the first in a series of regional features focusing on issues and ridings in B.C. that could prove critical to the outcome of the federal election on April 28.
Speaking to a pumped-up crowd at a warehouse in B.C.’s Interior, Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre shared a joke.
“The Okanagan is the best part of Alberta,” he quipped, laughing along with his supporters who were packed in to see him speak in the community of Penticton, about an hour’s drive south of Kelowna, on April 5.
Looking at more than 30 years of election results, though, his point is clear: people in B.C.’s Interior tend to vote for right-leaning parties, more in line with their eastern neighbours than their provincial counterparts in Vancouver and on Vancouver Island.
There have been exceptions over the years, including Penticton, which has been represented by the NDP since 2015.
But with polls indicating a widespread collapse in support for the New Democrats, Poilievre is touching down in B.C.-based ridings held by the NDP in an effort to complete a blue sweep of the province outside of its southwest corner.
Poilievre draws big crowds in B.C.’s Interior
His efforts, though, may be spoiled by another potential change, this one in Kelowna, the largest city and only metro area in the B.C. Interior.
That’s where Liberal candidate Stephen Fuhr senses a chance for victory which, if he pulls it off, would be a repeat of his shock 2015 win when he unseated the Conservative incumbent to become the first, and, so far, only Liberal MP elected in the B.C. Interior in 50 years — and a potential bellwether for the election race nationwide.
“Three weeks ago, this was a Conservative-safe riding. It is now a toss-up,” Fuhr said, referring to the electoral district of Kelowna, which has recently been renamed and reconfigured to include most of the city of roughly 150,000 people, including the downtown core.
Dave Korzinski, a Kelowna-based research director at the Angus Reid Institute, said while he cautions at drawing too many conclusions from riding-level data on national campaigns, there are indications that the race in Kelowna is representative of a countrywide trend which sees voters making a choice between either the Liberals or the Conservatives, while other parties fade into the background — a reversal of previous decades where the regional race is often between the Conservatives and NDP.
Speaking specifically to Kelowna, he said the fast-growing city is getting younger, a trend which has tended to favour parties other than the Conservatives. The Liberals have also laid some groundwork in the region, hosting a caucus retreat there in 2019, and Carney briefly touched down in February to meet supporters during his bid for the leadership of the party.
Korzinski said most projections give the Liberal and Conservative candidates roughly even chances of winning in Kelowna as the election coalesces around the issue of who can best deal with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Knocking on doors, Fuhr has drawn the same conclusion, saying people are telling him they’re ready to put “country over party,” which is leading to pickups from voters who might otherwise lean NDP, Green or even Conservative.
Among those people is Fuhr himself, who says that for most of his life he had dutifully voted for centre-right parties, a practice he attributes to the social circles he had growing up in Alberta.
But by 2015, he says, people had begun to sour on Stephen Harper’s leadership and were ready for a change. The sentiment ran deep enough in Kelowna that the local Green candidate dropped out of the race and endorsed Fuhr as the best way to defeat the Conservatives, providing an upset and giving Fuhr a seat in Parliament.
The honeymoon didn’t last, though. Fuhr says that when he went door-knocking again during the election of 2019, he once again heard from voters who were tired of their prime minister, but only this time, it was Justin Trudeau. He lost his seat and opted not to run again in 2021.
A former pilot in the Royal Canadian Air Force, he says he’s been pulled back into politics by a desire to help defend Canada against Trump’s talk of annexation and trade wars and a belief in the new Liberal leader’s ability to win people over.
“[Mark] Carney plays very well here,” Fuhr said, saying the former banker appeals to voters like him who may have once leaned Conservative but feel uneasy about whether Poilievre can best handle the moment with the uncertainty caused by the United States.
Korzinski of the Angus Reid Institute said while it’s true the Liberals are picking up new supporters, he doesn’t see the same sort of “generational shift” of voters moving toward Carney that took place when Trudeau ran for prime minister in 2015, when younger Canadians were attracted by his message on issues like climate change and spending.
“There seems to be more pragmatism in this race in supporting Carney and the Liberals, rather than the charisma factor that Trudeau brought,” he said in an email.
Korzinski also noted that Angus Reid’s polling has shown a tightening of the race in B.C., with Conservative Party gains coming at the expense of other parties, including the Liberals, following Poilievre’s visits to both Penticton and Terrace in B.C.’s northwest.
He said the importance of the cost of living among voters polled has risen in recent weeks, while the weight of relations with the United States has declined on the priority list, a trend that could favour the Conservatives, as well.
Those trends speak to Dan Albas in the riding of Okangan Lake West-South Kelowna. First elected as a Conservative in 2011, he says he got into politics as a “frustrated small business owner” and is critical of the direction of the country over the past decade.
“Our GDP growth, wage growth, standard of living have fallen way behind other countries,” he said.
He says that in addition to international relations, what voters he speaks to are focused on is things like public safety and stagnant economic opportunities, problems he says have gotten and will continue to get worse under the Liberals.
Albas joined Poilievre on stage in Penticton, where they are hoping for a Conservative win in the new riding of Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay.
Formerly South Okanagan—West Kootenay, the district has had its boundaries redrawn to extend further west along the B.C.-U.S. border, an area that has historically voted Conservative and which the party thinks will help extend its chances of victory, particularly since the incumbent, the NDP’s Richard Cannings, is not standing for reelection.
What matters to voters in Kimberley, B.C.?
Bill Bennett, a longtime provincial politician in the region with the now-defunct B.C. Liberals who has worked on federal Conservative campaigns, says he thinks the Conservative message appeals to the same sort of “working people” who have previously voted NDP.
“They’re people that want to get ahead economically,” he said. “They want to make sure they continue to have their jobs working in the mining industry and the forest industry and everything else that you do here.”
Poilievre’s message of lowering taxes and speeding up resource development, he said, resonates.
Linda Sankey, who has stepped in as the NDP candidate, also places cost of living at the top of the list of everyday concerns for voters, including a lack of housing and health care.
She’s been out on the road making the pitch to voters that her party, which helped extend dental and pharmacy coverage, is best positioned to deliver tangible change.
“It’s time to build, not to cut,” she said, arguing that both the Liberals and Conservatives fail to work for “the people.”
But Bennett says his time in politics has taught him that in a major campaign, it’s the face of the party that matters more than the local candidate, so the direction this election takes in the Interior may come down to whether Carney or Poilievre can appeal more to voters in the region.
And with so much at stake for the country right now, he hopes people will take a close look at who they want to be prime minister in the weeks and years ahead.
“I strongly urge people to vote,” he said. “It matters.”
